Greg Weldon of WeldonOnline shared his views on CKNW yesterday at 9AM. If you have never subscribed to his money monitor, metal monitor or ETF monitor, I strongly recommend you give it a try via the free trial. Greg is one of the few independent financial analysts I respect. He correctly predicted this crisis long before our government officials, central bankers and financial media got out of their denial. He provides extremely specific short-term and long-term analysis.
Here is a quick summary:
- We are not out of the woods. The stock market has lower to go even though we may see bear market rallies in the order of 20/25% with the U.S. election “acting as a catalyst of hope”. What we are experiencing is a reversal of a 40-year credit expansion. The U.S. consumer is howing increasing sign of stress: more unemployed, longer unemployment, much more partially unemployed. There is no sign for a major wealth reflation on the horizon.
- What to do from a personal investment standpoint: Be much more personally involved. The old investment models like the buy and hold mentally don’t apply anymore. Be more flexible, diversified and have a nimble investment approach. Be involved in all asset classes, globally and be much more specific. Long in some assets and short in others at the same time.
- So far the massive efforts of central banks haven’t been very successful, so we don’t know if this situation will end up into hyperinflation or ugly deflation. There is still a lot of fire power held by central banks, so we can expect a much bigger effort in terms of monetary policy (see upcoming G20 meeting mid-November).
- At some point, if/as more and more bail-outs are provided, the credit-worthiness of the U.S. could be questionned.